Thank You, Phillies

Well we spent over a year as World Champions, not surrendering the title until the calendar turned to November, and I'd like to salute the team for its efforts to try to repeat, going much further than anyone could have expected, and that only the brave few had hoped.  The mid-70s Reds were the only National League team to go back-to-back in like the last 80 years or something, so for those of us who are fans of one of the 29 teams that don't make a mockery of the sport by buying themselves meaningless championships over and over again, it was quite a feat to come this close to the repeat.  In the end, Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge -- the heroes of last year's World Series -- came up as goats in key spots in games 3 & 4 and the rest of the team could not come through in their behalf.  I wish we'd ended on happier news, and not lost to the worst bunch of fans, but that should not diminish the great accomplishment achieved by this Phillies squad. I mean, the Philadelphia Phillies had only been to the World Series twice since 1950, but then they made it each of the last two years.  So that's a pretty dramatic turnaround.  And it's been a wonderful ride.   I hope it continues.

All of the regular position players are signed for next year, with the exception of Pedro Feliz, and the Phillies hold a club option on him.  I'd assume he'll be back, if only for his defense (he can't hit for shit, as we saw again this postseason) and because I don't think they have anyone in the system ready to step in.  The core of the offense -- Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Jimmy and Raul Ibanez -- are signed past next year, so we should be in good shape to continue hitting like we've been hitting the past few years.  We can probably expect some decline from Werth, who hit at a career peak, and Ibanez, who couldn't keep up his blistering early season pace after an injury before the All-Star break.  Rollins and Victorino, though, can be expected to improve, or at least have room for improvement, especially Rollins.  Utley and Howard have been doing this for years, so you have to hope it continues.  I'd like to see them work a young outfielder into the mix -- filling in for Ibanez, perhaps, to give him some extra rest at age 38 -- and that may be Ben Francisco, but he showed very little this post season other than a good glove.  The minor league system has a few prize OF prospects, including Dominick Brown, but I'm not sure how major league ready they are.  Infield depth is another issue, and if we had anyone to replace Feliz, we probably would.  His option is $5M, which the Phillies have until Monday to pick up, but they may try to re-sign him at a lower deal instead.

As far as pitching is concerned, the Phillies cut ties with former ace and 2008's #2 starter Brett Myers, who suffered through injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, ending a roller-coaster career as a Phillie that saw some frustrating moments and promise unfulfilled, but also some great pitching, including a post-All Star break stretch of amazing starts in 2008 that were a huge factor in letting us catch the Mets again and make the playoffs again.  Myers will probably try to catch on as a reliever somewhere -- which he prefers to starting -- but our rotation is pretty well set for 2010 anyway.  Cliff Lee's option was already picked up, so he'll be at the front of our rotation next year, with Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ holding fort behind him.  Jamie Moyer is signed for next year at age 47, and presumably will be given at least a cursory shot at the 5th spot in the rotation, and the team is likely to take a stab at bringing Pedro Martinez back, after his effective stretch run and playoff performance.  They probably won't be willing to pay him much, though, with their finances stretched through raises to all their current stars, so I don't really expect him to be back.  Stud prospect Kyle Drabek might get a shot at the last spot as well, but it seems clear that the Phillies are not overly concerned with filling out the rotation when they let Myers walk.

As for the bullpen, apparently Brad Lidge is getting his elbow checked for loose bodies, which might help explain his 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves.  He claimed all towards the end of the year that he was feeling as healthy as he was all season, but if it's true that his elbow was hurting him and he kept going out there, that's about as selfish and shitty a move a player can make, and he was directly responsible for blowing game 4 for us.  Of course, if he gets his elbow fixed and can come back as the 2008 form of himself, saving every game for us with a sub-2.00 ERA in 2010, then I'll probably forgive him.  I'm just not counting on it.  Scott Eyre is also going in for examination and has hinted at retirement.  He was probably our most effective reliever this postseason, which is saying something, and it's not something good.  The rest of the bullpen is largely signed for next year, I believe -- Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, and Chad Durbin.  Obviously this is an area of major concern that needs to be addressed by management, particularly to come up with a plan B if Lidge is not going to be closing.  Every other player given a shot at the job on the roster came up short this year, and I wouldn't rely on any of them in the 9th inning.  We'll also need a good lefty arm if Eyre retires.

So next year's team should largely be the same as this year, with perhaps a new 5th starter and hopefully an overhauled bullpen as the only major changes.  As I said, the offense may slip a little with an expected decline by Werth, but it will remain the strength of the team and certainly is strong enough to capture the NL East again.  The rotation will be a key, and I worry that Cliff Lee will suffer the same overworked residual effect in 2010 as Hamels suffered in 2009.  A bunch of idiot Phillies fans are calling for trading Hamels, overreacting to his playoff failures this year and forgetting that he won the World Series MVP in 2008 and is still in his mid 20s, but threw something like 266 innings in 2008 and had the predictable dropoff the next year that almost every single pitcher in the league suffers through (see Justin Verlander circa 2007 to 2009).  Hopefully Cole can return to form in 2010, and I have a lot of faith that he can, because Cliff Lee, although he's not as young, may definitely suffer a dropoff from this year's stellar performance.  Blanton should be fine in the 3rd slot, and Happ is still young and a question mark, but could be ok.  Obviously if Drabek comes through this spring and grabs the final spot, that would be a shot in the arm for the team and its future beyond 2010, because if we're tossing Jamie Moyer out there every 5th day, I won't really love our chances to repeat. 

But it has been a great two seasons for Phillies fans.  And we thank you, players and management, for all your wonderful effort and play.  Here's hoping we're back in 2010.  We are still the two-time defending National League Champions and I think we can do that again.  No one in our league will be spending $450M+ this offseason to sign the best free agent pitcher, best free agent hitter, and another great free agent pitcher in order to return to the playoffs after missing them for the first time in 15 years.  So we should at least be on a level playing field.  Thank god we're not Orioles or Blue Jays fans.  Must suck to be them under baseball's current system, when one team is allowed to spend themselves into playoff berths from their division every single year.  Go Phillies!

Comments

[LegFuJohnson]

It's your blog, but you lose all credibility with the payroll whining.

"...of the sport by buying themselves meaningless championships over and over again"

The Yankees have bought themselves the same number of meaningless championships as the Phillies, D-Backs and Marlins (and others) over the past 9 years.

You lost me early. If you wrote anything well in the following paragraphs, then "well written"... but I really can't say. The Phillies should be thanking the teams that do their best to put a team out there that can beat the Mets as many as 6 times per year. You are right, I guess the NL playing field isn't level if some teams have to play the Yankees 6 times, while some get to play the O's.

[Bill]

99.9% of baseball fans agree with my payroll "whining". You are welcome to your opinion, and being the majority of anything is not necessarily a good place to be, but I'm only losing "credibility" in your eyes. The rest of the world agrees that the Yankees bought this title, unlike the Phillies, D-Backs, and Marlins.

[LegFuJohnson]

When this blog isn't nominated for any national awards... you'll know why.

[Elmer Straw]

I hope we buy the title again next year, and every year after that. Go Yankees World Champs!!!

[weight loss pills]

I have read the article based on the Phillies.I like post very much as it contain informative knowledge.99.9% of baseball fans agree with my payroll "whining".I agree with the point that the mid-70s Reds were the only National League team to go back-to-back in like the last 80 years or something, so for those of us who are fans of one of the 29 teams that don't make a mockery of the sport by buying themselves meaningless championships over and over again, it was quite a feat to come this close to the repeat.I love to go Philadelphia Phillies.I want to know suggestion from others.

[accommodation for London 2012]

Great introduction for this article. I have found it really interesting to read. Keep up the good work.

[Victor]

To be fair, the Phillies are 25-16, which is the best record in the NL and secnod best in all of baseball behind only Cleveland, so it's not like they're in a ton of trouble. But man, it's frustrating watching them lose a lot of those 16 games when surrendering three runs or less.Right now, they just aren't hitting. They've lost four games in a row now, and in the last three, their pitchers gave up 3, 3 and 2 runs. In all 8 losses they have this month, they've scored three runs or less. In 5 of those 8, their pitchers have only given up 3 or less runs, yet they still lost. Everyone is in a funk at the same time. Not good.No, this is not normal. The team going in a slump is normal, but not this bad. Of course, it's a combination of things. Chase Utley has been out all season. Shane Victorino is hurt. Carlos Ruiz just came back. Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez simply aren't getting it done.Once this team gets healthy, they should be fine as far as scoring is concerned, and this pitching isn't going anywhere. But man, it's rough right now.As far as was this expected, well, to an extent. We all knew there would be a drop-off with Jayson Werth's departure. This team has no real right-handed power threat right now, and no one to protect Howard. Then when Chase went down, you knew the offense wasn't going to be the same as it was.But I don't think anyone quite saw a slump this bad. No one expected Ibanez to be a world-beater, but you expect more out of him. Looks like his age may be catching up. And we knew Francisco is no Werth, but nowadays he's useless.The good news is Chase seems to be on his way. Victorino will be back soon. Ruiz is back now. John Mayberry has been swinging well and should get more time. And the team's top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be up here at some point, hopefully ready for the majors.In the meantime, it's gonna be rough. Thank god they have the pitching they do right now. But once the bats do get going, the Phils will be scary good.

[Amy]

Excellent article about the low snoircg / high winning tendencies. RAJ gets it right again by emphasizing pitching pitching and then pitching. This low offense / high victory totals have been even more pronounced with the games of the past week which has rarely seen the Phils score more than 3 runs ! Thank heaven for the marvelous pitching of virtually every starter sans Hamels' outing in Houston. Which leads me to this question is it becoming alarming that Rollins, Utley, Howard (despite 2, and only 2, hits in critical situations, and Victorino, are in terrible slumps due to inactivity, injuries, et. al. Even the offensive leader, Pence, went a woeful 0 -5 last night in a game where the top four hiters went 0-18 !! Is this some sort of foreboding moment we will witness in the playoffs ? I am becoming concerned that even going forward (2012-2013) the team may need another offensive jolt ala Pence in the regular lineup there is simply not enough production. Does this foretell a new left fielder, a righty preferably, who can deliver an .800 OPS ? or will we see the continued development of Mayberry ??? Any thoughts ? and/or more hand wringing ?

[Kadir]

I'd like to add a note to the Unprecedented Improvement section. The Phillies neeedd a perfect storm of events to take place to generate massive revenue and perpetually improve… * They neeedd lifelong fan and area resident Harley to move out of state (to Texas), eliminating any such curses/spells/karmic evil in order to achieve greatness.I will also accept karmic credit for the Texas Rangers' improvement since that time.