Tour de France Preview

Contador.  Armstrong.  Competitors.  Rivals.  Teammates.  Enemies?  Yes, Lance is back to the Tour de France after a 3-year absence and although his comeback season has been far from successful due to injury and perhaps too long of a layoff, on Saturday he will be back on his favorite racing turf -- the streets and mountains of France, where he won a record 7 straight titles before retiring from the sport in 2006.  But since he's been gone, a young Spanish rider has taken over and dominated cycling, having won three of the four Grand Tours that he entered, including the 2008 Tour de France.  Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong are on the same Astana team that promised to dominate the cycling season but instead has been a disaster and nearly folded from lack of funds; they do come to the Tour with easily the most powerful team in years.  Will the teammates get along?  Will Lance be able to keep up with the young star, or somehow even surpass him?  What of Levi and Kloden and Haimer Zubeldia, all leaders of other teams for years, now working for Contador and/or Lance on Astana?  And how will team manager Johan Bruyneel keep these egos in check, especially after pissing off Contador by not selecting fellow Spaniard climber Benjamin Noval for the Tour and Lance by not selecting fellow American climber Chris Horner as well (and for picking a token Kazakh rider by Astana instead)?  No one knows, but this could prove to be the most exciting Tour of the decade and one in which drugs do not play a role at all thanks to super-strict testing and standards by the French authorities (Alejandro Valverde isn't riding due to probable -- unproven -- involvement in a scandal over three years ago, and Tom Boonen has been banned due to probable -- and seemingly questionable -- cocaine use, not a performing enhancing drug).  If the Tour is simply fought on the streets and mountains of France and not in a beaker in a lab somewhere in Paris, we will all be a lot happier.

The course is heavily back-loaded into a grueling final week, but overall doesn't seem as difficult as Tours past, which may allow some riders to keep up with heavy favorite Contador, although none of the major contenders can really be expected to keep up with an on-f0rm Alberto in the mountains.  And the way he's been time-trialing lately, even TT experts like Levi and Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans won't be able to put in much time on him.  I'd hate to say it, but I think the only one with the skills to beat an on-form Contador is Lance -- or at least the Lance of three years ago.  But Armstrong has been far from his prime this season and unless he's found his ability in the six weeks since the end of the Giro d'Italia, I'll be surprised if he can truly compete.  He says that if cannot keep up with Alberto that he will change his focus and work for his teammate for the overall victory.  But make no mistake, he's here to win.  And if he talks all about how happy he is to help Bert get the victory, that just means he couldn't keep up.  Lance wants to win as badly as ever.  He's just not as good as Contador I don't think.  I don't think anyone is.

Here are the contenders for the Tour:

Alberto Contador, ESP, Astana:  Bert is the heavy favorite, and he's geared his whole season around the Tour de France.  His time trialing has improved dramatically since his 2008 Tour victory and he wants revenge on the tour organizers for excluding his team from last year's race, even though none of the Kazakh riders responsible for the doping in 2007 were part of last year's team.  The only thing that hurts him, though, is that the first two weeks of the Tour provide only a single mountain finish and only a small individual time trial, so there's not many opportunities for him to rack up any time on his rivals before the 3rd week.  I'd be shocked if he's in yellow at the start of Stage 17, but that monster stage will be where he makes his move.  After three weeks of racing, will anyone be able to stay with him?  And will he have enough left for the long time trial to follow and then the Stage 20 assault on Mont Ventoux?  And of course, will the Lance drama be too much of a distraction to overcome?  I'd say he will win.  But anything can happen in a bike race.

Andy Schleck, LUX, Saxo Bank:  Schleck is younger than Contador, I believe, and will be racing his first Tour de France for himself, as he spent last year helping CSC teammate Carlos Sastre to the victory.  But Sastre is now on Cervelo and Schleck is free to see if he can start his future now.  He hasn't shown himself yet to be able to dose his effort over three weeks of glory, but he's also probably the best contending climber not named Contador and as such, has the best chance of shaking him in the mountains -- or at least staying with him.  His Achilles heel is that he isn't the greatest time trialer, but neither was Bert when he won in '08.  Of course, Bert didn't have to battle a superstar like himself back then, so Andy is still a major underdog.  Even if I have him pegged as the having the 2nd best chance of winning.

Cadel Evans, AUS, Silence-Lotto:  Evans has finished in 2nd place in the last two Tours de France, and lost by less than a minute to Contador in '08.  He's got a somewhat stronger team than his disastrous support in previous years, and he's as motivated as ever to finally win one of these Tours.  Of course, motivation won't help him keep up with Contador and Schleck in the mountains, and as we've seen over the past few years, he just cannot keep pace with the elite mountain riders when the road turns up.  But we have also seen that his is quite capable of riding at his own pace to limit his losses, and he usually has a time trialing advantage over the mountain guys (maybe not on Contador anymore).  This year's race doesn't have a lot of time trials (one of the ITTs was replaced by a team trial), but there are only three mountain top finishes and I could see Evans contending at least for a podium spot, if not beating Bert for the title. 

Carlos Sastre, ESP, Cervelo:  The defending champion was a monster on the decisive Stage 17 last year, which peaked on L'Alpe d'Huez.  He beat Sammy Sanchez (not racing this year) by 2:03 and Cadel Evans by 2:15 to take the overall lead of the Tour, which he held through the end.  This year's big stage is also Stage 17 and Sastre is a notorious mountain goat in the Alps (where we're spending the 3rd week this year) and a notorious third week star.  He's hurt by time trials, but as I mentioned, they are limited this year, and if anyone on this Tour can be expected to keep up with Contador in the highest mountains, it's Sastre.  So why isn't he higher on this list?  Well, for one, he's old.  I think he won last year's Tour at age 33, which is pretty over the hill for cycling.  But for another, his victory last year was almost entirely due to the excellent team performance by CSC.  His teammate Frank Schleck actually held the lead of the tour going into Stage 17 and drew out Evans with an early attack on d'Huez.  So when Sastre, who had been lying in wait for over two weeks, took off at that point, Evans could not respond.  And Frank's brother Andy was further up the road already and helped Sastre through the toughest parts of the climb.  Make no mistake, Sastre rode a great race, but if weren't for CSC and team manager Bjarne Riis's brilliant tactics, Evans probably would have won that Tour.  And Sastre left Riis to go for the bigger money of the new Cervelo team, which has had a stunningly strong year of racing (in sprinting mostly), but is not remotely built for this Tour, or for supporting Carlos.  We'll see how he does, but I have a feeling he'll be all alone on Stage 17 while Contador (or Lance) has an army of Astana helping him and Andy Schleck has Sastre's old teammates (and his brother Frank) helping him.  Maybe he and Evans can work together?

Denis Menchov, RUS, Rabobank:  Menchov just beat Evans and Sastre in the Giro d'Italia, and Rabobank, although much weaker than Astana or Saxo Bank, is a pretty strong team in its own right, one of the big four Tour teams this year, along with Liquigas.  Plus, Menchov now has three Grand Tour titles to his name, second to only Lance among competitiors.  But he's never won a Tour de France, and these mountains are much higher than those used in Italy and Spain.  He should be competing for a podium spot and probably is most likely to have an early lead after the Stage 7 mountaintop finish.  But I'd be shocked if he won.  I'd actually be thinking he's doped if he won.  Even though he's never been under suspicion, as far as I know.  And it's actually refreshing that of the top 5 contendors, none of them has actually been suspected of any doping offenses (well, Contador hasn't been connected to any, but the way he climbs makes everyone suspicious).  But suspicions without evidence are better than the opposite, which brings us to...

Lance Armstrong, USA, Astana:  No one, probably including Lance, has any idea what he will do in this Tour.  He finished in 12th in the Giro, only a few weeks after a broken collarbone and with very little training, which is a positive, but he couldn't come close to hanging with Menchov, Evans, and Sastre in the mountains, and they weren't even very high mountains.  That was six weeks ago, though, so you never know.  I loved the Lance story when it started and rooted hard for the American from 1999 to 2001, but I quickly grew tired of the way he dominated the Tour and I know I was pulling for Joseba Beloki to dethrone him in 2002 and 2003 and for Ivan Basso in 2004 and 2005.  Hell, I even think I rooted for the once hated Jan Ullrich in those later years (even though he never actually came close to beating Lance).  But since Lance retired, I've found myself become a fan of his again.  Obviously, his work on behalf of Livestrong for cancer research is laudable, no matter how poorly that organization is rumored to be run.  The Livestrong bracelets were a brilliant idea and I'm sure some large amount of money was raised as a result.  Plus, Lance embraced my favorite participatory sport - running - and ran two NYC marathons in his absence from cycling.  And his return has boosted the profile of the sport dramatically, at least here in the States, with Versus giving extended coverage of a bunch of early season races and Universal Sports showing the Giro in its entirety.  So for all those reasons, I'm rooting for Lance this year.  Especially since he's an underdog.  And because his effectiveness will likely undermine Contador's efforts and make the race wide open for everyone.  Of course, it's much more likely that he's helping Contador up the climbs in Stage 17 before giving way to his teammate and eventual champion.  But we can hope.

Levi Leipheimer, USA, Astana and Andreas Kloden, GER, Astana:  Levi's had many many chances to win Grand Tours and hasn't and this is the toughest Grand Tour there is (his third in 2007 behind teammate Contador as the protected team member was his best chance at a Tour de France).  He's not getting any younger and he has not one, but two, teammates ahead of him in the Astana pecking order.  I don't think he'll be asked to help Contador, but I also don't think he'll keep up with the much younger Spaniard.  Just like in '07.  It won't be nearly as close this time.  Kloden has a second place Tour de France finish from back in 2004 (Lance's 6th victory) on the drug-riddled T-Mobile team ahead of protected teammate Ullrich.  But he hasn't really had a result like that since and he's third or fourth in the Astana pecking order, depending on how Levi does.  He might be fighting for a top 10 finish if he's on form, but really, his purpose on this team is awfully redundant.  If Contador and Lance have a fight to the death on the team bus sometime around stage 5, though, Bruyneel will be quick to throw the team support behind Andreas and Levi and maybe then he has a shot.

Frank Schleck, LUX, Saxo Bank:  Frank is option 1A in Bjarne Riis's grand master plan, behind brother Andy, and he actually finished ahead of Lil' Bro in 6th place in last year's Tour.  But he's definitely playing second-fiddle to the more talented youngster this year and will only be racing for himself if Andy is not going well.  If that happens, though, Frank will be the recipient of the full force of the Saxo Bank team, much like Sastre last year, and having Jens Voigt, Fabian Cancellara, the Sorensons, Kurt Asle-Arveson, Stuart O'Grady, and his own brother helping him could very easily push him to a podium spot.  Jens! and Fabian alone are worth at least a few minutes each for a teammate.

Roman Kreuziger, CZE, Vincenzo Nibali, ITA, and Franco Pellizotti, ITA, Liquigas:  This Italian team sends its strongest team in history, even without Ivan Basso making the cut (I'm not sure the Tour would have let him race) and have at least two and possibly three contendors for top 10 positions, if not podiums.  Kreuziger is coming off a 12th place finish in the 2008 Tour at age 22 and was third in the recently completed Tour de Suisse.  He is an excllent mountain climber, much like his two teammates, and can put in a solid ITT, as evidenced by his 7th place in the Tour de Suisse time trial stage, ahead of Andreas Kloden.  Nibali is only a year older and coming off a 20th in last year's Tour, while Pellizotti is a veteran support man who is coming off a 4th and 3rd in the past two Giro d'Italias and may have the mountain strength to surprise in this Tour, which I don't believe he's ever ridden before.  Liquigas could make things interesting, at least in the lower stretches of the upper Tour standings.

Other riders with chances at top 10 spots, if not actual podium finishes include Kim Kirchen (Team Columbia-High Road), 8th last year, Michael Rogers (Team Columbia-High Road), Robert Gesink (option 1A for Rabobank), Christian VandeVelde (Garmin), 5th last year but injured all this year, David Arroyo (Caisse d'Epargne) -- the team leader of Spain's biggest team in the absence of Valverde -- and Linus Gerdemann (Milram), 25th in '07 but out with injuries last year. 

And for those readers who do not understand or care about the Tour de France, thanks for reading so far, and here's the money that's available for the winners (by tradition, all individual rider awards are pooled and shared by the team and it support staff).  I guess that's in Euros.  No idea what the conversion is.

	Team name	Prize money
1	Team CSC Saxo Bank	€621,210
2	Silence-Lotto	€233,450
3	Gerolsteiner	€192,370
4	Rabobank	€154,250
5	Team Columbia	€113,450
6	Cofidis	€91,460
7	Garmin-Chipotle	€82,570
8	Ag2r-La Mondiale	€71,060
9	Caisse d'Epargne	€59,510
10	Crédit Agricole	€55,450

11	Euskaltel-Euskadi	€53,130
12	Liquigas	€49,220
13	Française des Jeux	€45,780
14	Team Milram	€35,490
15	Agritubel	€32,540
16	Quick Step	€31,470
17	Bouygues Télécom	€24,900
18	Barloworld	€22,480
19	Lampre	€9,840

Comments

[LegFuJohnson]

F Basso!

And the Euro is around 1.40 USD right now.

But what are those payouts? Last years awards? The money isn't more this year?

[Bill]

Yes, that is last year. I'm sure it goes up every year. Just say it on Wikipedia and thought it was interesting.

So CSC/Saxo made $900K last year or so (more than 2/3rd of that from Sastre's overall win), which converts to about $100K per rider, minus whatever they give to the support staff. Not bad considering that all the top riders have multi-million dollar contracts and race a bunch of other races during the year. But not exactly baseball or football money. Of course, when "seating" is free (you stand on the roads), I guess the race gets all its prize money from television rights? Sponsors probably pay for the expenses of simply putting on the race.

[Bill]

Tom Boonen can start in the Tour de France tomorrow, the Court of Arbitration for Sport of the French Olympic Committee has ruled.

It overturned the decision of the ASO, the Tour organiser, to exclude the Team Quick Step sprinter because of his positive out-of-competition tests for cocaine. The court's decision cannot be appealed.

woohoo! And now we have a serious sprinting challenger to Mark Cavendish. Oh baby! Boonen, Boonen, Boonen!!