World championship hangovers are as frequent as my own hangovers when I mix liquor and beer, but the Phillies tried not to mix with the ingredients of their recent success too much in the offseason, hoping to come out of the gate stronger than they have in recent years, where they have relied on strong Septembers and Mets collapses to win the division. And this year, April was a lot stronger, but June was a disaster, and only a 9 of 10 streak at home in July has put the Phillies back in the position every fan hoped they'd be in -- back on top of the division, with the Mets way behind. How did they get there? Will it continue? Will the Mets rise from the ashes? Should I start worrying about Florida and Atlanta? Or is a third straight playoff appearance inevitable at this point and should we start thinking about repeat? Do we need Halladay to make that happen? These are a lot of questions, and I don't have all the answers. But come along for the ride.
What has gone right?
(1) Rauuuuuuuuuuuuul. Raul Ibanez was signed in the offseason to replace free agent Pat Burrell, a move that was derided by many, especially me. I didn't see the point in exchanging Burrell for a player that would put up similar overall stats but was a left hander in an already lefty-heavy lineup, and was at age 37 three years older than Burrell. I also worried about his defense, which had been a disaster in Seattle the last two years, arguably worse than Burrell's own shaky defense. Of course, none of that has happened. Burrell has been injured and mostly ineffective for Tampa Bay, while Raul was on an MVP pace before an injury derailed him the last few weeks. He still sits with 20+ HRs and 60 RBIs, and with an OPS that is third in the league behind Pujols and Prince Fielder. That kind of pace won't continue, but at this point, Raul was a huge positive signing for new GM Ruben Amaro and has masked over some of his shakier moves. And in the small left field at Citizens' Bank Park, Ibanez's defensive inadequacies have rarely been apparent. Plus, Rauuuuuuuuuuuuuuul!!!!
(2) Utley. Chase has been an MVP candidate again this first half and a stalwart on my first-place fantasy team -- and oh yeah, on the first place Phillies as well. Winning is just too easy these days for me. Not sure how to handle all this success.
(3) Werth and Victorino. Two years ago, the Phillies cobbled together a lefty/righty RF platoon out of two semi-veteran journeymen who weren't expected to ever be major league regulars. Then Aaron Rowand left for SF on a big free agent contract after a huge year at CF and the combo got split up -- Victorino getting the everyday CF job and Werth being moved to a new platoon, this time with very veteran lefty Geoff Jenkins. Jenkins struggled mightily which led to multiple cries from fans about how they'd lost the clubhouse presence and great bat of Rowand and not replaced it. Then, after the all-star break, Werth moved into the lineup full-time (with Jenkins becoming a pinch-hitting afterthought), and he and Victorino both got hot in their full-time roles, helping the team win the World Series. Less than a year later, both players are all-stars -- borderline all-stars, but all-stars nonetheless. I don't think it could have worked out better for either of them, and with Jimmy Rollins' yearlong struggles, it's been Vic's bat at the top of the lineup that's kept our offense chugging. Sometimes you need to get lucky to build a championship team. With Werth and Victorino, the Phillies struck gold twice. And now have an all all-star OF.
(4) Howard. Ryan Howard spent the off-season slimming down to a much more manageable figure and his effort has paid off with a light-years improvement in his defense, turning one of the only defensive liabilities on the team into an asset. And he's continued to hit the crap out of the ball, without suffering his usual April/May swoon (but without his typical "I'll carry the team" hot streak -- at least not yet). His clutch 3-run homer to tie the game in the 9th on Saturday was a thing of beauty (if in fact I had stayed past the 8th inning to see it and wasn't driving home listening to Larry Anderson make the call instead. Damn!)
(5) J.A. Happ. 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA in 10 starts isn't bad. It's probably not sustainable, but it's covered up very nicely for an injured Brett Myers and a struggling Cole Hamels. Pitching has been far from the strength of this team this year, but Happ has been a bright spot. Would I trade him for Halladay, though? In a heartbeat.
(6) Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer. Blanton has been strong the last month after a shaky start and Moyer leads the team in wins. His ERA is also 5.99, so maybe not so much with the good, but he is 8-6 and the Phillies seem to hit the crap out of the ball every time he starts. So that's good. But yeah, we need a top-notch starter to really compete. We had two aces going into the playoffs last year - Hamels and Myers, who had been unhittable down the stretch. Myers will not be back. And we can only hope about Hamels. I have no faith in Moyer, who struggled in the playoffs last year, and Happ remains quite young. So you're looking at Blanton as your #2 in the playoffs right now, where he was a #4 last year. Big difference. Go get Halladay!!
(7) The Mets. Yes, a big reason we're in such good shape at this point this year is the Mets collapse. Usually they wait for September for their flame-out, but it came early this year in the form of injuries to Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado. Good times for Phillies fans. Another year of misery for Mets fans. Almost makes me feel sorry for them, if I hadn't heard everyone and their brother proclaiming the Mets as the favorites for the division this spring ahead of the defending champions. F the Mets.
(8) Pedro Feliz. .293/.338/.418 with 45 RBIs, some of the clutchiest clutch hits on the team, and Gold Glove-caliber defense. Basically, everything we need Jimmy Rollins to be, Pedro has been this first half. With the thought that Jimmy will improve, you also have to remember that Pedro will probably go the opposite direction. But it's been an excellent half season for him, certainly.
(8) The Fans. A ton of sellouts (34? so far?) and the highest attendance in the National League is what can happen if you win a World Series. With all the extra money, though, will Phillies management open up the purse strings for one of the best pitchers in baseball (Halladay)? I sure fucking hope so.
What's gone wrong?
(1) Cole. He's 5-5 with a 4.87 ERA in 17 starts so his hangover from a career-high innings load last season (including his performance as World Series MVP) was to be expected, but is difficult to watch. He's shown flashes at times, and a brief trip to the DL seemed to help, but he gave up 3 home runs to Pittsburgh in the first two innings of Saturday's game, sending me to McFadden's to drink and putting the Phillies in a big hole that required a miracle comeback to beat. No player is more important to the Phillies success in the playoffs right now. And no player on the team looks shakier, well, other than the one below him here.
(2) Brad Lidge. No one was expected a repeat of his perfect season last year. In fact, I was hoping he'd blow a save or two in April just so he didn't have the "streak" hanging over him during the tough part of the schedule. But no one expected him to completely fall apart either. He's been on the DL and has seemed a little better since coming back, but his velocity is not back up to last year's standards and he's been burned by the long ball. 0-4 with a 7.03 ERA and 6 blown saves is not exactly what you want to see out of your closer. Of course, his 2.3 HR/9 IP rate is as unsustainable as last year's minuscule 0.3 HR/9 IP rate, so his ERA should improve with less HRs allowed. But his drop in strikeout rate from last year's 11.9 K/9 IP and his career 12.4 rate to this year's 10.4 is very troubling.
(3) J-Roll. Jimmy no good this season to date. He's showing signs of life over the past month, but a .229/.287/.355 is not going to cut it, even with Gold Glove caliber defense, which he hasn't provided this year either. I still expect him to turn it around (he's only 30 years old, the same age as Utley, believe it or not) and we don't need him to be the offensive superstar he once was with the rest of the weapons on the team. Of the top 3 issues with the Phillies, he's the player I'm least worried about.
(4) The bullpen. Lidge fell apart. JC Romero was suspended for the first 50 games. And Chan Ho Park was inexplicably pitching in the rotation over Happ, getting shelled as expected. Madson was strong -- a few blown saves during Lidge's DL stint notwithstanding, but the Jack Taschner experiment ended badly (5.20 ERA) and Chad Durbin's shockingly good season in 2008 gave way to a more typically Durbin-esque 4.47 ERA in the first half. Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre were good in limited roles, but this was a major strength of the team during the championship season and they were nowhere near that in the first half. Fortunately, Romero is back (3.14 ERA in 17 appearances, control as shaky as ever) and Park has been good in relief for the most part. With Madson and a "normal" Lidge, along with Eyre and Condrey, that's a strong enough bullpen to be an asset down the stretch. But a lot of that will depend on Lidge.
(5) The bench. Dobbs is back to crushing the ball like the past two seasons (after a shaky start) and Matt Stairs just keeps hitting key pinch-hit home runs, but that's about all she wrote for bench players. And they're both left-handed with a regular lineup that features 3 lefties + 2 switch-hitters, all in the first 6 batters. Right now, Eric Bruntlett (.139 average) and rookie John Mayberry (.184) are the only righthanders on the bench, after the release of steady veteran backup catcher Chris Coste, who sadly, was the best righty bat at the time. So if Amaro is looking for an area outside starting pitching where help is needed, this is it.
(6) Pedro Martinez. He's not yet signed, but he may be by the time this is posted. He went 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 20 starts with the Mets last season, with a 7.2 K/9 ratio that was well below his career average of 10.1 and a 3.6 BB/9 ratio that dwarfed his career 2.4 mark. He was a shell of a shell of his former famous self, and a shell of the 2006 version that posted a 4.48 ERA (in 2007, he only had 5 starts). We have to go all the way back to 2005 for his last good year and this is who the Phillies are counting on to shore up their rotation? No. I'm sorry. It's Halladay or bust. Will Pedro be better than Rodrigo Lopez, currently holding down the 5th rotation slot after two decent starts? Possibly. But that's nothing to write home about. If we get Halladay, it's a Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Happ/Moyer rotation with Pedro in the minors in case there's an injury. Without him, it's Hamels/Blanton/Happ/Moyer/Pedro and all of the sudden, you're relying on two 40+ year olds at the bottom of your rotation, a rookie in the middle, and a struggling star at the top. That's ugly. And that's where things stand as of this moment.
In summary, 48-38 and 4 games up on 2nd place Florida, 6 1/2 on the Mets. I would have taken that on April 1st without hesitation and I take it now. But without a 9 out of 10 streak to end the first half (against a collapsing Mets team and two bad teams in the Reds and Pirates) the tone of this post would have been a lot more negative. The offense looks fine (actually, great, but that was expected). The defense has improved. The bullpen looks likely to recover to something approaching last year, assuming (and it's a big assumption) that Lidge gets right. But the rotation needs work. Fortunately, the Blue Jays happen to be willing to trade arguably the best pitcher in the game to a team willing to part with a bunch of high-level prospects, and we have a bunch of high-level prospects available. Trade now. I don't even care if he leaves after 2010. He can help us win the World Series this year and next. And once you've tasted the glory of a world championship, you really don't want to settle for anything less.
I think Wuerth and Victorino are the major reasons the Phillies are in first. That and the fact the Mets cant keep anyone healthy. 2nd worst division in baseball might be another factor in the Phillies being first as well.
If you want to know the worst division in baseball is the AL west.
Posted by: switsky | July 16, 2009 at 10:21 AM
My other favorite team is in the AL west. woo hoo! Go baseball!
Posted by: Bill | July 16, 2009 at 04:37 PM