Next Year's Orange

Syracuse fans got potentially devastating news yesterday when the school announced that three starters off this year's Sweet 16 team -- sophomore Jonny Flynn and juniors Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris -- will declare early for the NBA draft.  The news reports emphasized that Flynn has not hired an agent and plans to explore his draft position before deciding whether or not to come back.  Devendorf and Harris have also reportedly not hired agents, but their chances of coming back seem less likely (even as Eric supposedly told a group of 12-year-olds at a banquet Wednesday night that he was "definitely" coming back, no doubt).  If all three end up leaving, Syracuse will no longer be a pre-season Top 20 next year.  If all three come back, they're probably top 5 (that's where they've been in the early mock rankings produced this week).  So it's a huge decision -- for the players and the school.

Devendorf and Harris will not be drafted.  Devo might show up on the outskirts of draft lists (late 2nd round at best), but Harris -- a former McDonald's All-American like Devo who planned to declare for the draft out of high school before the NBA rule change -- has no chance to get drafted.  Why leave early, then?  Well, in Devendorf's case, he's actually a senior in school years and due to graduate.  He's also 22 years old, with a daughter, and coming back for another year at Syracuse is not going to help his draft position, such as it is.  He's probably planning to go to Europe to make some money, figuring he'll only have a few prime earning years to do so and now's as good a time as any.  There may even be a push by the Syracuse brass to get Devendorf out of the school, for publicity's sake.  I can't imagine Boeheim being behind that -- he's always seemed to be a Devo fan -- but maybe the off-the-court issues are helping to push him off the team now.  I can't say for sure.  I do hope he comes back, but it seems unlikely.

Harris's future seems less certain.  He won't get drafted this year, but he won't get drafted next year, and if he has a shot at European money, he might as well take it (he has 2 sons to support).  He's younger than Devo, though, and hasn't graduated, so sticking around at least for a degree would seem to make a lot of sense.  I have a feeling he's also being forced out, though.  He and Boeheim have not seen eye-to-eye for three years, and three years in the Boeheim doghouse is a long time (usually Jimmy is hardest on freshmen and sophomores but lets up by junior year).  Harris's playing time decreased toward the end of the season and in the playoffs and I could definitely see Jimmy telling him that his starting spot was not guaranteed for 2010, so his draft position (such as it is) would not improve.  That might be all the push Paul needed.  I'm sure he thinks he's a lot better than he actually is (he would have to).  But I don't know how he'll react when there's a collective "who?" from NBA scouts regarding his potential draft status. 

And then there's Flynn.  He's the one true NBA prospect among the three, but he's hinted that he'll be back unless he's a top 10 (or maybe lottery) pick.  Right now, pre-draft lists have him at #15, which would be one outside of the lottery.  Obviously pre-draft camps will go a lot toward sorting this out, but ultimately if Jonny wants to go to the NBA, he can go right now and be guaranteed at least first round money.  His former classmate Donte Greene was projected in the late teens, which was enough to sway him to leave last year, even though he ended up getting drafted in the late 20s and is sitting deep on the bench in the NBA.  Is that a cautionary tale for Jonny?  Is he serious about wanting to win a championship at Syracuse?  I don't know.  And we won't know for sure until early June, when he can pull out of the draft.  On a bright note, about half of the 80-90 players who have declared early over the past 3 years ended up returning to school.  So it's just as common to "test the waters" and come back as it is to stay in the draft.  I just hope Jonny stays.

So what does that leave for the team next year?  Well, part of the reason Boeheim might be pushing Harris (and maybe Devo) into the draft is because the cupboard is overstocked for next season.  Which is good.  But we need Jonny to be really good.  With him (even without the other two), we're definitely a top 10 talent.  Without him, we're not Top 20.  That's how good he can be next year.  Assuming all three leave, though (which I think is the assumption you have to go with), the starting lineup will be as follows:

PG Scoop Jardine (So)
SG Andy Rautins (Sr)
SF Wes Johnson (Jr)
PF Rick Jackson (Jr)
C Arinze Onuaku (Sr)

Rautins will move easily into Devendorf's starting role and even though he's not quite the scorer that Devo is, he's a much better defender (hell, I'm a better defender) and is a slightly better pure shooter.  Andy needs to work on his ball-handling (especially if Flynn isn't around) and his 2-point game, but there's not a big dropoff between him and Devo, if any.  Jackson and Onuaku return to form a potentially formidable interior, but while Jackson improved dramatically in his sophomore year, Onuaku (possibly due to a leg injury he suffered in January) never really fulfilled the promise he showed early in the year.  In fact, by the end of the year, Rick was the better player and Boeheim didn't have the two of them on the floor together all that often.  Without Flynn, the two big guys become much more important, and I'm not sure if they can elevate their game to the level needed for this team to be top 20.  I guess we'll see though.  If Jackson can improve in his junior year the way he did last year, he will be a star.

The two new guys to the lineup would be Scoop Jardine and Wes Johnson, the popular pair from the syracuse.com webcasts "The Scoop and Wes Show."  Scoop redshirted this year after playing through his freshman year with an injury -- that he played through because the team was down to six healthy players after injuries to Devo and Rautins.  He showed flashes of quality play as a freshman and now has two years of practice under his belt, so he should be solid as a replacement for Flynn.  But there's no way he (or anyone) can replace Jonny's dynamic playmaking ability, so there's bound to be a dropoff there.  It should be noted, though, that Jardine was the more highly touted recruit between he and his high school teammate Rick Jackson, and freshman year Jardine was the better player.  So if he can improve like Ricky did, that would be a very good thing. 

Which brings us to Wes Johnson, the former Big 12 freshman of the year, who transferred from Iowa State after a solid but injury-filled sophomore season.  According to all reports, Johnson is a "special" player, and without Flynn, he becomes our likely top scorer by default.  He's almost definitely the reason Harris is leaving, as it's been reported that he outplayed Paul all year in practice, and would have likely replaced him in the starting lineup if Harris came back for his senior year.  So Harris's loss affects the team the least (and to be honest, I'm actually glad to not have to scream at my TV anymore every time he threw the ball away or made some ridiculous drive to the lane with three guys about to stuff him).  I wish him luck -- he always played very, very hard, and at times (infrequent times, sadly) showed flashes of brilliance, but I'm definitely excited for the Wes Johnson era to begin, even sight unseen.

The bench under this scenario would not be nearly as strong, though.  Sophomore forward Kris Joseph, who played sparingly during the Big East season, becomes the sixth man by default, with redshirt freshman Mookie Jones right behind.  Mookie was the more highly touted recruit but didn't get any playing time even against the scrubs in the pre-Big East season, then suffered an "injury" and got redshirted.  He'll need to make huge strides to contribute to the team, and without Devo and Flynn, we'll need him at guard.  Desperately.  Especially if he can shoot -- which was supposed to be his forte. 

A trio of freshmen recruits will fill out the roster.  Boeheim has spoken highly of Brandon Triche, son or nephew of former Syracuse player Howard Triche, and he's a shooting guard, so he might fight Mookie for minutes.  James Southerland was supposed to be a freshman this year, but he played an extra year at prep school to get his test scores up, and supposedly could contribute this year.  He's a forward.  But the freshman likely to make the most impact is 6'11" center DaShonte Riley, a defensive shot-blocking force from national high school power Detroit Country Day, who originally committed to Georgetown in the fall before changing his mind and picking Syracuse last month.  He's raw offensively (as most big men are), but will definitely get minutes backing up Onuaku and Jackson (especially with Harris leaving, which means Jackson and Onuaku will be playing together a lot more).  This could really be a solid bench, but of course it is young.  Very talented though.

Now, if Jonny comes back (and at this point it's probably 50-50), all the above changes.  Eric and Paul are seemingly gone (and will be pretty easily replaced by Rautins and Johnson), but Jonny is the one we need back.  Replace Scoop with him in the starting lineup and this team is better than last year's.  Yes, better.  Right now.  Replace him with Scoop and there's just too much of a dropoff -- even given that Scoop could be much better than we last saw him...  So hope and pray that Jonny's draft status doesn't improve beyond #15, that he's honest when he says he's coming back unless he's top 10, and that everyone else stays healthy and works hard this summer.  Because the following lineup is definitely a top 10 team next year...

PG  Jonny Flynn (Jr.)
SG  Andy Rautins (Sr.)
SF  Wes Johnson (Jr.)
PF Rick Jackson (Jr.)
C    Arinze Onuaku (Sr.)

Talk about a great, veteran team.  Here's the bench...

PG  Scoop Jardine (So.)
SF  Kris Joseph (So.)
C  DaShonte Riley (Fr.)
SG  Mookie Jones (Fr.) - OR - SG  Brandon Triche (Fr.) -- Boeheim never goes more than 8 deep anyway
F  James Southerland (Fr.) -- likely won't play in this scenario
C  Sean Williams (Jr.) -- definitely won't play

And there's one open scholarship (if all three came back, we'd be one over the scholarship limit, which might be another reason Boeheim and/or the school is pushing out Harris and Devo).

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