NLCS Preview

I haven't had a chance to root hard for a sports team in a post-season since Syracuse was upset in the Sweet Sixteen by 8th seed Alabama the year after winning the 2003 NCAA title.  It's only been 4-1/2 years since then, but that's a lifetime in sports.  The Orange lost to lower ranked teams in the first round each of the next two seasons and missed the tournament altogether the last two years.  The Raiders haven't even sniffed the playoffs in that time, finishing 5-11 in 2004, two years after going to the Super Bowl, which has sadly been their best record since.  Al Davis is such an embarrassment that I've named one of my fantasy teams "Die Al Davis Die" for the past three years and haven't felt guilty about it once.  The Mariners finished in last place four out of the past five seasons, missing the playoffs each year, and became the first team in history to lose 100 games with a $100M payroll this past summer.  And the 76ers, who were in the finals as recently as 2001, have only 2 first round exits at the hands of the Pistons to show for the past five seasons.  Even the Phillies, despite turning around a decade of horrible finishes following their last World Series appearance in 1993, didn't make the playoffs until last season and lost so quickly to the Rockies in the first round that I didn't even have time to jump off the bandwagon.

So there it is.  Nearly five years since Syracuse lost to Alabama, and my five biggest sports fan rooting interests had gone a combined 22 straight seasons without winning a playoff series until Joe Blanton threw a gem and Pat Burrell hit two of the home runs he'd saved up since August and the Phillies beat the Brewers Sunday to move into the NLCS.  Suffice it to say, I don't know quite how to react.  I'm expecting the worst.  I always expect the worst.  And I wouldn't say watching them win these games fills me with joy -- it's more like relief as I wait and wait for the other shoe to drop and the inevitable crushing defeat that has been my life as a sports fan to come crashing down.  I mean, seriously, I'm someone who roots for the team Al Davis owns along with a team that has the most losses in the history of baseball (and sports), and the fucking Seattle Mariners, who lost in the ALCS to the hated Yankees after winning the most games in the history of baseball in one season.  I mean, you'd have to find someone who roots for both the Cubs and Lions to beat me, right?  And even then, I think I have an edge.  At least Matt Millen managed to win more than five games at least once or twice in the past five years.

Here's our expected rotation against the Dodgers:

Game 1:  Cole Hamels (LHP) - Citizens Bank Park, Thursday 8:22 pm
Game 2:  Brett Myers (RHP) - Citizens Bank Park, Friday 4:30 pm
Game 3:  Jamie Moyer (LHP) - Dodger Stadium, Sunday 8:22 pm
Game 4:  Joe Blanton (RHP) - Dodger Stadium, Monday 8:22 pm

• My knee surgery - Tuesday

Game 5: (if necessary) Dodger Stadium, Wednesday 8:22 pm 

• I have class at night, but I'll be only a day removed from surgery and unable to walk, so no one could blame me for missing class, right?

Game 6: (if necessary) Citizens Bank Park, Friday 8:22 pm
Game 7: (if necessary) Citizens Bank Park, Saturday 8:22 pm

The Dodgers are throwing Derek Lowe in game 1, Chad Billingsley in game 2, Hideki Kuroda in game 3, and either Greg Maddux, or more likely, rookie lefty Clayton Kershaw in game 4.  Obviously, if someone sweeps the first three games, the game 4 starters could change. 

The Dodgers pitching staff had the lowest ERA in the NL this season.  The Phillies were 4th. 

The Phillies lineup will generally look as follows.  Charlie Manuel has been pretty rigid with his lineup throughout the season and in the first round.  Criminally so, in my opinion, but he got the team to the NLCS so I won't criticize.

1.  Jimmy Rollins, SS (SH)
2. Shane Victorino, CF (SH)
3. Chase Utley, 2B (LH)
4. Ryan Howard, 1B (LH)
5. Pat Burrell, LF (RH)
6. Jayson Werth, RF (RH)
7. Pedro Feliz, 3B (RH)
8. Carlos Ruiz, C (RH)
9. Pitcher

All of the Dodgers starters are right-handers other than Kershaw, so Charlie may mix in lefty Greg Dobbs at 3B, probably in Game 2, and Geoff Jenkins in RF, if Werth is struggling.  Former Dodger Werth has looked bad against righties in the last month or so, and in the Milwaukee series, but he ended up with like five XBHs in the NLDS so I'm sure he'll be in there for at least Game 1, although likely lower in the order than the typical position (2nd or 3rd) that he occupied for much of the season.  Charlie may decide to keep Shane at 6th to break up the string of strikeout prone righties at the bottom of the order and I don't know if I'd disagree.  Well actually, I would just start Dobbs at 3b against every righthander and solve two problems at once (Feliz can't fucking hit).  I'd also throw Chris Coste in at catcher every game, but Charlie has chosen defense over offense, leaving us with three potential automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup unless Brett Myers can pull off some more miracle at-bats.  This puts extra pressure on the top of the order, which didn't exactly come through in the first series.  Victorino and Werth had the best time of it, and Jimmy had a solid series, but Burrell was horrible before Sunday, and Howard and Utley did almost nothing.  They faced a lot of lefties, though, and the two big guys in the middle are much, much better against righties, so that should help here.  The Phillies do have a deep and strong bench (possibly because Dobbs and Coste should both be starting ahead of the regulars), so Charlie has the opportunity to mix and match to create offense and defense.  Hopefully he is up to the task, because that lineup above is not the best thing in the world to face Derek Lowe with.  I would definitely start Dobbs.

The Dodgers will roll out a lineup close to the following:

1. Rafael Furcal, SS (SH)
2. Russell Martin, C (RH)
3. Manny Ramirez, LF (RH)
4. Andre Ethier, RF (LH)
5. James Loney, 1B (LH)
6. Matt Kemp, CF (RH)
7. Blake DeWitt, 2B (LH)/Jeff Kent? (RH)
8. Casey Blake, 3B (RH)
9. Pitcher

I watched the Phillies play the Dodgers in August, but I really don't remember anything about the game except us losing.  I know Manny was playing.  And he didn't do anything.  The rest of the lineup?  I have no idea.  I think Nomar was playing SS and Jeff Kent was at 2B.  Loney, Ethier, and Kemp played, and I know that they're young and good, but I really haven't followed the Dodgers enough to make a report on their abilities.  I do remember a string of mostly Asian relievers shut our offense down.  Supposedly, Joe Torre has lost his faith in Takashi Saito and may go with Jonathan Broxton to save this series, but everyone on the Phillies boards is worried that Hong-Chih Kuo, who was injured for the Cubs series and was definitely one of the relievers that shut us out live (along with Chan Ho Park -- yes, that Chan Ho Park), will be active for this series.  I don't know that it matters.  We can't seem to hit any opposing relievers in the playoffs anyway.  Maybe it has something to do with Charlie stacking all his lefties and righties together?  Maybe...

The Phillies bullpen doesn't look nearly as strong as the Dodgers, who feature five guys with ERAs under 3.13, but it has been the quiet strength of the team, and our closer situation looks better, with Brad Lidge bringing his perfect save mark to the table against the struggling Saito and Broxton.  JC Romero was surprisingly underused in the NLDS -- Ryan Madson faced Prince Fielder as the tying run in the 8th on Sunday, instead of the lefty Romero, but some are saying Charlie just had a brain-freeze and forgot to get his lefty warmed up (he only started throwing after Fielder came to the plate).  That's probably not a good sign in either case, since my faith in Madson is historically weak and my faith in Charlie is weaker.  Torre hasn't exactly pushed too many proper buttons since 2000, but I still think we're in the managerial strategy deficit.  But again, I'm not supposed to criticize Charlie.  I will just say this -- if you decide in the 5th inning of a 2 run game to pinch hit for Jamie Moyer (who had recovered from a shaky first  two innings to pitch like we've seen him all season) so that the offense can get the game closer, you do not -- I repeat -- you DO NOT bring in your worst reliever (Clay Condrey) to take his place, especially with the rest of the bullpen fully rested.  You're either trying to win the game (and by pinch-hitting for Moyer, you're pretty much taking out all the stops) or you're not (bringing in Condrey, who promptly gave up a run).  Just saying.

I am excited for the series.  As you can see by this preview, I'm also very nervous and borderline pessimistic, but that is pretty much life as a Phillies fan (or a fan of any Philadelphia franchise, for that matter).  We probably have the offensive edge, but only if Howard and Utley show up and Manny doesn't hit 4 home runs.  They probably have the starting pitching edge, but if Hamels, Myers, and Blanton pitch like they can (and did in the Milwaukee series), and Moyer pitches like he did all season, we could be just as good.  They have the bullpen edge.  We have the closer edge.  Our defense is strong, outside of left field and first base.  I have no idea how their defense is (seriously, Nomar was playing short when I saw them, so it's a little tough to evaluate -- Jan Aronson has more range at this point in their prospective careers).  Their left fielder's defense is the only one in the league with worse D than ours.  I've already discussed the managers at length.

My prediction:  How the fuck should I know?  If I could see the future, I certainly wouldn't have lost 15% of my 401K over the past two weeks.

Go Phillies!

Comments

[LegFuJohnson]

Huh-huh Chase Mutley.

[Wow]

You only lost 15% of your 401K? You're lucky. I'm down closer to 25%.

[Bill]

I haven't looked the last couple days. I'm afraid to.