Tonight marks the start of the Big East college basketball season (just two months from March Madness!) when St. John's visits Syracuse at 7 pm, available locally here in New York on no channel that I can find yet, but I'm still searching, so I'm hoping it's on one of the MSGs or something. Anyway, the Cuse went 10-3 in the non-conference schedule and are an inexplicable #12 in RPI (but unranked in the polls) while St. John's fields a 6-5 record and an RPI rank of 136, so it should be an easy win for the Orange. Of course, that's what I thought before the UMass game. And the Rhode Island game. And the Ohio State game.
Things have not exactly gone as planned for Jim Boeheim's squad this year, starting with a preseason international tournament injury to starting guard Andy Rautins (the team's best 3-point shooter), followed by the two home losses to A-10 teams in the nonconference portion of the season. Then, in a blowout win on December 15th against East Tennessee State, starting guard Eric Devendorf blew out his knee and was lost for the season. The team has recovered for three straight home wins against weak foes, but it's really anyone's guess whether they have the ability to compete for an NCAA tournament bid this year, let alone a Big East title. With senior guard Josh Wright's unexplained quitting/dismissal from the team just before Devo was lost, Syracuse has been left with only 8 scholarship players, which includes 5 freshmen, 2 sophomores (one of whom missed all of last season with injury), and 1 junior-college transfer student. At least 3 of those players were not even expected to contribute this season, but without Devo, Rautins, or Wright, all are being pressed into duty, and junior walk-on Justin Thomas has actually gotten first-half minutes in the last couple games since the only other guards left on the squad are freshmen Jonny Flynn and Scoop Jardine. Not good times.
Pittsburgh and Georgetown are two of the top teams in the country. Villanova is 10-1, Marquette 9-1, and West Virginia 9-2. The Big East is stacked, again, and Syracuse will be facing each of these teams at least once (and Nova and Georgetown twice). I don't know how we can possibly compete. We did win a game at Virginia earlier this season (with Devo), and both Rhode Island and UMass have proven to be goodteams (#14 and 22 in the RPI, respectively), so those losses probably aren't as bad as they look (both occurred after a big 2nd half lead was lost due to a porous defense and the other team shooting lights-out from 3-point range). Defense has improved as the season has gone on - especially in the man-to-man, which definitely won the game at Virginia. Devo's loss, if anything, probably helps in this area... he's a pretty horrible man-to-man defender, so Scoop Jardine will be an improvement if merely average, and Devo wasn't exactly Mr. Hustle and Energy inside the 2-3 zone that has looked so lousy so far this season.
But Devo's offense will be missed, especially from the 3-point range (Rautins' loss is equally damaging), as Jardine has shown no ability to hit an outside shot, leaving the team with only two actual shooters - Flynn and fellow freshman sensation Donte Green. Not only from the 3-point range, but from anything beyond 10 feet. Both Jardine and sophomore Paul Harris struggle mightily with mid-range jumpers and while they are improving and will improve as the season goes on, they are not offensive weapons at this point, other than around the basket on drives to the lane (Jardine) and offensive rebounds (Harris). Those offensive moves are likely to be far from easy in the lanes against the oversized front-lines of a Georgetown or Pitt, not to mention UConn and other Big East foes. That leaves the offensive season up to Flynn, Green, and the inside game of Arinze Onuaku, two freshmen and a red-shirt sophomore who missed all of last season. Not good times. They have looked brilliant at times - all three of them have been very impressive. But they've looked like freshmen at other times. Green not as much, but Flynn's been erratic, and who knows if Onuaku's newfound prowess around the rim will play in the Big East. With Devo and Rautins (or even one of them) as a veteran influence capable of scoring in bunches, we've got the potential to be one of the better teams in the country. Without them, I just don't see it happening. Unless the defense really steps up its game, which is possible - we've got size and speed and quickness oozing through each of the starters now - but it is certainly not very likely.
And the depth, well, there's virtually no depth to speak of. Freshman center Rick Jackson has played well and provides some frontline backup for Onuaku, as well as the possibility for Boeheim to go "really big" with 3 guys over 6'10" on the court at the same time, if he chooses (which he hasn't yet, but the non-conference schedule didn't feature many opponents with huge frontlines). But the only other scholarship backups are also big guys -- the freshman Shaun Williams who was expected to be redshirted because he's purely a shot-blocking project at this point, and the JUCO transfer Kristof Ongenaat, who looked really ugly in short doses before Devo's injury, and slightly better with more playing time in the last three games. But he can't shoot either. And neither of them are guards. Flynn and Jardine (who was getting only handfuls of minutes early in the season) better be ready to play 40 minutes a night in the Big East, a tough task for freshmen under any circumstances.
We'll see what happens. My hopes are definitely muted after the early season upsets and the loss of Devo. And after the still inexplicable omission of an overly deserving Syracuse team from last year's NCAAs, this could be the first time in memory (or perhaps ever) that Boeheim coached two straight NIT squads. I sure as hell hope not, because last March I was an angry disaster. The Raiders have been horrible for years now and have an owner that still runs things as if he isn't senile. The Mariners are run by complete and utter idiots who have taken one of the higher payrolls in the league and used it to overpay for the downside of the careers of Richie Sexson, Jeff Weaver, Jose Vidro, Raul Ibanez, and most recently Carlos Silva. They have zero chance of competing for a playoff slot this season. The Phillies finally made the playoffs last year after a 14 year absence, only to get unceremoniously swept by an upstart Colorado Rockies team on which I still can't name a single player other than Helton and Holliday. They should be ok this year, but still, this is Philadelphia - how much hope can I have? So it's been the Orange or bust for me as a sports fan for most of this decade, which kind of makes it difficult to admit this may be a "rebuilding year" for Syracuse. So I won't give up yet. Two home games against the Johnnies and South Florida, followed by an away match against a bad Cincy squad kick off the Big East season. We "should" be 13-3 (3-0) going into the tough contest at West Virginia. And if we somehow pulled off the upset there? Well, I think I'd start to get a little excited. And next year -- if Green doesn't bolt for the pros, which he seems likely to do at this point -- all these guys are back and a year older and wiser, along with Devo and Rautins and a trio of decent freshmen recruits, we're talking pre-season top 10 or better. But I don't want to wait until next year. Unless of course, we lose to St. John's tonight. Then call me when spring training starts.
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