Why Use Facts

I'll let you in on an e-mail argument that I had with several "Derek Jeter for MVP"/"Derek Jeter is an ALL-TIME GREAT"/"Derek Jeter is a god" supporters.  After disproving that Jeter belonged in the same breath as his contemporaries on offense (only once appearing in the AL Top 10 in OPS between 1995 and 2005, while over 15 fellow hitters that I could find off the top of my head had done so more than 4 times each during those seasons) or defense (no one disputed that), they were left to argue "leadership", "4 rings", "playoff performance", and "clutch-ness" as proof of his greatness.  Don't get me wrong, he's a very good player, just not this year's MVP, and not an all-time great. 

The four rings are tough to argue against.  He's got them, that's a fact.  Of course, so do Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Joe Torre, Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, and yes, the immortal Luis Sojo. 

The playoff performance?  Well, he's been great in the Division Series, especially against Texas and Anaheim, building up huge stats against those All-Star staffs.  He was horrible in one season against the A's, good in another.  In the ALCS, he's been a disaster, with a career OPS (OBP + SLG) of .744, well below his career regular season OPS of .847 (not counting 2006).  In the World Series, slightly better, at .809 (or again, worse than he normally does in the regular season).  Doesn't sound like he's performing very "clutch" in the postseason does it?  Hmm...  I wonder if his .200 BA and .233 SLG in the 2004 ALCS was a big reason why Boston ended an 86 year old curse?  Or if his .179 OBP and .259 SLG in the 2001 World Series was a big reason why the Yankees string of championships came to an unceremonious end against upstart Arizona?  You don't really see that mentioned much in the mainstream media.

So we're left with "leadership" and regular season "clutch-ness" -- maybe he just struggles in the postseason, unlike teammate Alex Rodriguez (career post-season OPS of .927), but drives them into the playoffs.  I mean, everyone knows Jeter is clutch.  It's a fact.  It's repeated on every single Yankee broadcast ever, and just about every single national broadcast.   I had a diehard Red Sox fan tell me today that with the game on the line, the only person he'd rather have at the plate would be Big Papi.  But what's the reality?  Click forward if you're not afraid of the facts.

Close And Late - results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck. (source:  ESPN.com)

 

Big Papi

2006: 1.293 OPS

2003-05:  1.132 OPS

 

Derek Jeter

2006: .811 OPS (that's a .384 SLG, thank you)

2003-05:  .744 OPS  (with a .249 BA in 217 AB!)

 

Wow, you can't get more clutch than that!!!! 

 

For comparison's sake, his teammate Alex Rodriguez (hated for not being clutch enough):

2006:  .613 OPS (ok that's bad)

2005:  .938 OPS (much better)

2003-05:  .945 OPS (again, so much better than Jeter, it's not even funny — it's the difference between Gary Sheffield and Bobby Crosby).

 

2006 MVP contenders:
Joe Mauer:  .909 OPS (close and late numbers only)

Justin Morneau:  .924 OPS

Jermaine Dye:  .997 OPS

Ortiz: 1.293 OPS

Travis Hafner:  1.343 OPS

 

Derek Jeter is NOT clutch, has not done any better in the postseason than in the regular season or than his teammates, and has not been nearly as good as other stars in the league, in either the regular season or the postseason.  A good player having a great season.  Not an all-time great.  Not the MVP.  A complete and utter NY media creation. 

 

But this "groupthink" approach, where if you say something enough times and show enough highlight clips of Jeter diving into the stands to make a catch, isn't just prevalent in baseball, or in sports in general.  It's a huge, huge problem in modern-day life, and is responsible for the re-election of President Bush (John Kerry got turned from a war hero to a soft-on-defense wussy who didn't deserve his Vietnam medals, even though he was running against a guy who never fought a day in his life and skipped out on even Air Force Reserve training) and the war in Iraq (of course they have WMDs - just look at this grainy photo, don't even think about investigating it), just to name two colossal failures of the past couple years.  This "groupthink" mentality is also responsible for Islamic terrorism in the first place, as the Western world has been portrayed as the enemy long enough by the dictators and slum lords ruling Middle Eastern countries that Muslims actually want to kill themselves just to take out a few Americans or Brits who never had anything to do with anything that's happened in their homeland.  It's bizarre and sad, and the only defense - to any of this - is the FACTS. 

A Derek Jeter debate is harmless fun.  But listening blindly to rhetoric you heard, even repeatedly, even from "reputable" sources in the media, even from your country's leaders, only leads to disaster.  Just remember this -- everybody has an agenda, which means that everybody is probably lying to you.  Find out the FACTS on your own, and make your own decision.  And if that means you discover that Derek Jeter has been spending his winters working for the Taliban, well then it's time to just accept it, even if your eyes tell you differently.

Comments

[Jan Aronson]

Simply magnificant!! We can argue back and forth all we want, but the bottom line is facts are facts and you have done a superb job of clearly outlining what should determine if you belong in the elite category of major leaguers. As I have said many a time, Jeter is a good ball player, but not worthy of being mentioned with the elite.

My guess is many a Yankee fan who have the read post will probably be very surprised by the facts, but as you said the media has a way of making you see or believe things the way they would like you too. If the post can perhaps make some view Jeter in a different light when debating where they would place him compared to his peers than I would say it was a tremondous success.

[LegFuJohnson]

Next you'll say that pitching doesn't really matter that much in BBM. As if there are any facts to back that up.

As you said, everyone has an agenda, and is probably lying. So therefore, you are lying... but if you were lying, then maybe everyone isn't lying to me, and therefore these really are the facts... but then you'd be lying.

Clearly I cannot choose the goblet in front of me.

[switsky]

do you realize you voted for Bush!! TWICE

[absurdity]

FACT: You are mixing up the terms "fact" and "statistics". Statistics can be a useful tool in an argument but they do not in and of themselves proove anything.
FACT: You are using only one statistic (ops). Is it the best stat to use as a judge of talent/greatness, etc? Arguable.
FACT: There is more to baseball than statistics.
FACT: Statistics can be manipulated easily. Your "close and late" stats, for instance: how big is the sample size? how many times were those guys walked, a stat that contributesd to ops but doesn't necessarily help the team in a clutch situation? What pitchers were they facing?
FACT: "Groupthink" is actually a term of art that describes a decision-making process that leads to a group taking an action, not the forming of opinions.
FACT: Ones opinions certainly are and should be affected by what others think. If enough people who make their career in baseball think Jeter is an all-time great, there must be something to that opinion. Just like I trust the Senate Intelligence Committee when they say there was never a connection between 9/11 and Saddam Hussein, I believe baseball Hall of Famers who say Jeter is great.
FACT: The phenomenon you refer to, of repeating something loud enough and long enough until people start to believe you, is the strategy the nazis used, and you are absolutely correct in attributing it to Pres Bush and his minions. F-ing fascist-nazi-bastard.

[Bill]

Dan (I'm assuming this is you, no one else who posts here knows about the Senate Intelligence Committee), let me dispel a few points...

a) The statistics I use here are facts. When Derek Jeter goes 1 for 3 with a walk, he's hitting .333 with a .500 OBP and an .833 OPS. That's a fact. You can distort statistics, true, but the statistics themselves (at least the ones I used) are facts.

b) I agree OPS is not the best, but it is very good, commonly and easily available, and understood by most people today. If you want to find an advanced statistic that actually shows Jeter is better than OPS shows, be my guest (hint: you're not going to find any).

c) I don't disagree that baseball is more than stats. But in determining player greatness, stats is where everyone does (and should) go. Unless you have seen every single game played by Jeter and every other player in the majors over the last 10 years -- and took copious notes, and were unbiased in your opinions despite being a Yankee fan (or hater), then I think we can trust the statistics about 1000x more than personal observations of a few highlight reels.

d) I agree that statistics can be manipulated, and I agree that the "close and late" stat suffers from small sample size (although Jeter's 217 AB over 3 years is pretty close to statistically significant). I'm just saying that the whole NY media/Yankee fan/baseball announcer crowd universally agrees that "Derek Jeter is clutch" - many even refer to him as "Mr. Clutch". If this is so true, how come the statistic, even in a small sample (but over the past FOUR SEASONS), show the opposite to be true (that he is no better and probably worse in "close and late" situations than normal).

e) You could be right about that one. My bad if I'm mixing terms.

f) See "g"

g) If this phenomenon of the Nazis, which you attribute to Bush, is simply "repeating something loud enough and long enough until people start to believe you", how come it doesn't apply to the bleating voices in the media about Jeter? It's certainly not nearly as important but in my opinion, it's the same exact phenomenon. The statistics do not show he is a clutch hitter but if Tim McCarver calls him "Mr. Clutch" enough times, well the whole world begins to think it and accept it as fact and defend it in a post on a blog. Isn't that the same thing as the Bush as Nazi comparison?

But thanks for the comments. It was actually very well thought out for a Yankee fan.

[Bill]

Oh and one more note that I found while cruising the Internet this morning...

OPS correlates to runs scored at .96

Better measures of hitter value include OPS+, EqA, and VORP (a measure that Jeter does very well in this year, due largely to his huge number of plate appearances).

But I think we can be fairly confident that OPS is closely measuring hitter value -- Runs scored are the only goal of an offense, correct?

By the way, here's how some other measures correlate to runs scored:

Home Runs: .72
Batting Average: .84
OBP: .91
SLG: .913

Here's a post explaining OPS in detail...
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/

[ummm]

VORP?